stock-forecasting-bz05-vl-verticalEconomic commentators tailor their comments to the expectations of their clients.  We all know that, right? So what? The what is that one of pro-pundits, Zachary Karabell, admits it in Newsweek.

The article is an odd mix of expose (all experts have agendas), advice column (decisive pundits get hired), and apology (the rise of certain pundits is market driven).  Karabell begins the article by describing the fickle, self-interest of financial analysis and ends it by telling not to worry – the market determines who we listen to.  Is this supposed to make us feel better?  Karabell ends the article telling us to question financial experts but his argument suggest that we should question the entire investment system.

  1. He contradicts himself about experts skewing their opinions.   First, he says that all analyst “emphasis” perceptions that fit their niche. He worked for a company that focused on growth markets, so he depicted a half -full picture.  Pundits working for more bearish companies provide a half-empty image.  Fair enough, except he also claims that pundits don’t “skew their analysis to serve their own bottom line.”  Emphasizing sounds a lot like skewing to me. Karabell probably meant to say that most pundits don’t out right lie or purposely rig their options.  But we can rest assured that they skew their opinions, for he already told us so. We don’t have to back pedal – they do it.
  2. Karabell does not seem worried about disclosure either.  Wouldn’t the public benefit from knowing professional stance of TV experts?  Wouldn’t this information help us decipher their opinion?  Isn’t this a very easy step that would help bring clarity and accuracy to professional economic reporting? Mr. Karabell evidently doesn’t think so, for his confessional article doesn’t even mention such simple adjustments.
  3. The psychological basis of markets – the most important thing Karabell says is that investors choose experts based on how they are currently feeling.  When investors feel confident, bullish experts become popular and when worried, bear experts reap the rewards.  For all the fancy number talk and derivative parades, human emotion drives the market.  Could we have a better indictment of our insane wealth transfer system? Again, Mr. Karabell must not agree for he tells us not to worry – the markets drive us. NO, NO, NO – our emotions drive the markets and that is what your agruement suggets.

Karabell pulls a fast one on us but telling us a bit of truth but then pretends that it doesn’t really matter.  Human emotion and self interest drive our financial markets – take it from him, even as he refuses to admit what he said.

The questions is do we really want to continue handing over so much our national sovereignty to these small group of greedy, emotional men?

I don’t.

It is time to get the media to open up their source book and for us to put faith into smaller, local markets. Why give all the money to a few super rich owners who know little and care less about what a company actually does?

Let’s invest in worker ownership and share risks (and benefits) with the people who really work. This is one of the great possibilities of our day and one of the great opportunities of this crisis.

Digg!


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